I have a new piece up at Power Line, "Four Deaths and a Rule Change."  For anyone interested, it's here.

I also have a new piece up at Hudson New York, "Is The Free Press Failing Us?"  For those interested, it's here.

TUESDAY,  JULY 14,  2009

SHE THINKS, SHE FEELS, SHE REASONS - AT 7:06 P.M. ET:  There is an intellectual crisis in America today, profound and history-changing.  The reason?  Sarah Palin has written an op-ed piece for the Washington Post.  What's more, it's coherent and well reasoned.  But has it gotten any respect?  Are we serious here?

First out of the gate to trash Sarah is that deep mind and respected thinker, John Kerry, who once ran for president and who speaks French.  He trashes Gov. Palin's essay, which is an attack on the Obama cap 'n trade plan, and does so, natch, at the Huffington Post, and in the most patronizing language.  I mean, after all, who is this woman, who didn't even have the decency to go to an Ivy League or Seven Sister school?  Who does she think she is?

Kerry is joined by a number of hangers-on who similarly trash Sarah.  What is amusing is that Kerry bases his argument on the "crisis" of global warming.  He does this just as more and more Americans are becoming skeptical about this "crisis," and more and more real scientists are joining the skepticism.  But Kerry apparently feels that his religion has been defamed, and he so he defends the faith.

Laughing at Sarah Palin has become fashionable.  And yes, she has made mistakes, as we've freely conceded here.  But remember that Ronald Reagan was laughed at as well, called a failed movie actor and a warmonger.  Sarah has quite a climb to get into Reagan's league, but don't sell her short.  She's been a more-than-credible governor, she connects with her audiences, and she's only 45.  On energy, she knows far more than the president and John Kerry combined. 

Sarah Palin has much to prove.  She may, in a way, be helped by those who laugh at her, and don't see her coming up behind them.

July 14, 2009   Permalink

RASMUSSEN CONFIRMS - AT 5:27 P.M. ET:  The Rasmussen tracker out today confirms the polling data from other polls and the general impression that political watchers have - that President Obama's numbers are weakening.

In Ras's presidential approval index, measuring the gap between those who strongly approve of presidential performance and those who strongly disapprove, Mr. Obama has been in negative territory since June 30th.  That's a lifetime in politics, and demonstrates that the president is facing serious, hardcore disapproval.  In today's tracker, some 36% strongly disapprove of the Obama performance.  In overall approval, the president ironically has come up a notch from his low, with 53% approving, 46% disapproving. 

Other polls show Mr. Obama somewhat stronger, although the new CBS poll, which we reported in our first item this morning, has approval at 57%, within range of the Rasmussen number. 

A reasonable analysis would conclude that only some good news can reverse this trend, and it's hard to see where that good news could come from.  Even optimists are guarded about the economy, with unemployment continuing to rise.  In foreign policy, Mr. Obama's strikeouts are enough to send him back to the minors. 

So far, we detect no change in Mr. Obama's program in response to the decline, and the Dems in Congress, especially in the House, seem hell-bent on imposing their brilliant vision on the American people, no matter how great the opposition.

July 14, 2009   Permalink

ANOTHER GREAT FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESS - AT 11:46 A.M. ET:  From Reuters:

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will not agree to tougher sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program in exchange for a new nuclear arms cuts deal with Washington, Interfax news agency quoted a foreign ministry source as saying Tuesday.

Last week, U.S. President Barack Obama's nuclear adviser suggested that progress on a U.S.-Russian nuclear arms pact could help persuade Moscow to be more cooperative on Iran.

"There are no reasons to link these issues or count on Russia being more cooperative in toughening sanctions against Iran if there is progress in talks with the United States on further cuts in strategic offensive weapons," the source said.

COMMENT:  Another illusion falls.  The question is whether illusions will fall fast enough to save this nation from the damage that Barack Obama's undergraduate mentality can do.  Kennedy got punched pretty badly by Khrushchev in his first year in office, but learned from it.  What has Obama, who's been punched by everyone, learned?  We may soon find out.

July 14, 2009   Permalink

SICKENING - REALLY - AT 10:20 A.M. ET:  Human Rights Watch was nobly founded as a human rights watchdog group.  But in recent years it's deteriorated into an appendage of the international left.  It's outrages are many, but this new one takes the prize.  HRW is raising funds.  And where are they raising said fund?  In Saudi Arabia, one of the worst dictatorships on Earth.  And how are they raising the money?  By bragging about HRW's anti-Israel record.  In other words, a "human rights" organization is raising money in a dictatorship by bragging about its assault on a democracy.  Great, huh?  Wonder if the mainstream media will continue to take HRW seriously.  From The Wall Street Journal:

A delegation from Human Rights Watch was recently in Saudi Arabia. To investigate the mistreatment of women under Saudi Law? To campaign for the rights of homosexuals, subject to the death penalty in Saudi Arabia? To protest the lack of religious freedom in the Saudi Kingdom? To issue a report on Saudi political prisoners?

No, no, no, and no. The delegation arrived to raise money from wealthy Saudis by highlighting HRW's demonization of Israel. An HRW spokesperson, Sarah Leah Whitson, highlighted HRW's battles with "pro-Israel pressure groups in the US, the European Union and the United Nations." (Was Ms. Whitson required to wear a burkha, or are exceptions made for visiting anti-Israel "human rights activists"? Driving a car, no doubt, was out of the question.)

Apparently, Ms. Whitson found no time to criticize Saudi Arabia's abysmal human rights record. But never fear, HRW recently called on the Kingdom to do more to protect the human rights of domestic workers.

COMMENT:  Sadly, this is a common story.  During the Cold War the Marxist left appropriated the language of human rights, but we were sharper in those days in countering it.  Today, after a generation of leftist control of our colleges, our resistance to the false rhetoric seems to be weakening  Barack Obama's often vague attitudes toward democracy are not helping at bit.

July 14, 2009   Permalink

REPORT FROM THE REAL WAR - AT 9:26 A.M. ET:  Urgent Agenda has a number of private sources around the world.  One of our best is an American who periodically travels to Afghanistan, and has both the time and expertise to analyze the situation there.  Here is his latest:

My analysis is very simple...the two fundamental problems remain, neither is improved by the recent changes in leadership:

1) Lack of troops.  The ratio of troops to population must be much higher for our counterinsurgency doctrine to work.   Gen. McKiernan recognized this but was stymied both by the election cycle and by NATO in his efforts to get additional forces.  Replacing him does nothing to change this...in fact  Gen. McChrystal has asked for additional troops beyond those who were reluctantly approved for McKiernan.

2) Fractured chain of command, especially on the diplomatic side.  Basically we are not all rowing in unison. So many of the parties involved have differing and sometimes downright conflicting agendas in Afghanistan that the basic requirement of unity of command is nearly impossible to achieve.  McKiernan was roundly criticized as having an incoherent strategy, but I contend that this was a result of the command structure he was forced to work with.  

I see no new strategies or changes in vision for Afghanistan.  In fact, I recently watched Petraeus on CSPAN briefing a plan for Afghanistan that looked exactly like what McKiernan and his staff developed.  
I believe that until these two problems are solved, we will be treading water.

Grim reality.

July 14, 2009   Permalink

MORE HILLARY - AT 9:12 A.M. ET: Following on the theme of the story just below - the mysterious role of Hillary Clinton - it seems the secretary will have a coming out party, the 415th of her career.  The Politico notes it:

In the first six months of the Obama administration, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has brought her star power to the world stage and cemented her position as a serious internal player. Now, according to her aides, she is ready to articulate her own policy agenda, one that focuses in part on strengthening Americans’ capacity for what has been called “smart power.”

Her own policy agenda?  Her very own?  Wait a second.  Doesn't she work for a guy who lives in a big white house?  What is this "own"?  More:

The speech she is scheduled to give Wednesday to the Council on Foreign Relations is expected to serve as an explanation and framework of the administration’s foreign policy and a tour of its busy first half-year. But it will sound some themes closely associated with Clinton’s former life as first lady and U.S. senator.

And then there's this tidbit:

Clinton appears increasingly comfortable expressing her views. State Department officials have suggested that she’s been a hawkish internal voice, pushing Obama toward more confrontational stances toward adversaries from Iran to Cuba.

Hmm.  May I humbly refer you to my comment in the item below, suggesting that Ms. Hillary will jump ship as soon as the jumping is good.  She can't take a position to the left of Obama.  I mean, how much room is there?  But she can go to his right, which probably reflects her natural instincts anyway.

Watch Hillary closely.  She hasn't given up on the White House.  She remembers how good the cooking was.

July 14, 2009   Permalink 

THEY FIGURED IT OUT? - AT 7:51 A.M. ET:  Some in the Obama administration are being dragged, kicking and chanting, into the real world.  They seem finally to see that the laying on of the Obama hands will not bring instant peace.  There is shock.  There is spiritual disappointment.  Consider, for example, the case of North Korea, as the Los Angeles Times reports it:

American diplomatic efforts on North Korea are coming under fire within the Obama administration from officials who consider talks futile and instead want to focus on halting the regime's trade in nuclear weapons and missile equipment, U.S. officials said.

The administration's official goal has been to coax the Pyongyang government back into the six-nation disarmament talks that began in 2003.

"We don't have six-party talks," said a senior U.S. official who described internal discussions on condition of anonymity. "We may have no choice but to move to containment."

And this note:

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton first expressed pessimism in April, when she told a Senate committee that North Korea's return to the talks was "implausible, if not impossible." The talks involve the United States, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Russia and China.

COMMENT:  The role of Hillary Clinton gets more and more intriguing.  What does she really feel?  How is she playing her considerable deck of cards?  I've long felt, and it's purely a gut reaction, that she will drop hints that increasingly distance herself from the Obama appeasement policies, then jump ship when the jumping gets good.  She could easily have her eye on 2016, when she'd only be 68.  She might even have her eye on 2012, if Obama, weakened in the polls, decides to limit his ministry to one term.  I stress, that is speculation, but very juicy.

In the meantime, our foreign policy continues to deteriorate, led by a president whose connection with the way people actually act and scheme, seems tenuous at best.

July 14, 2009   Permalink

THE SLIPPAGE WATCH - AT 7:38 A.M. ET:  It is now becoming a major political story.  The president's approval rating with the American people is slipping, and the decline does not appear to be a one-week phenomenon.  The love affair is coming to an end.  There are rumors that the ring will soon be given back:

(CBS) President Obama's approval rating has fallen six points in the past month, a new CBS News poll finds, amid growing skepticism about his handling of the economy and questions about the impact of the stimulus package.

The president's current approval rating, which is 57 percent, is still relatively high. But it has fallen 11 points from its peak of 68 percent in April, and has also dropped since last month's mark of 63 percent. His disapproval rating, meanwhile, has risen from 23 percent in April to 32 percent today.

The decline in support is coming not from Republicans - whose support for the president has actually risen - but from Democrats and independents. While 82 percent of Democrats still approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing, this number is down ten points from last month.

The president's support among independents has fallen eight points to 50 percent. Only 30 percent of Republicans back Mr. Obama, though that's up from 23 percent in June.

COMMENT:  The figure for independents must be especially troubling for the president.  The CBS poll reflects other surveys in this regard. 

What makes the numbers even more grim for the previously euphoric White House is that there doesn't seem to be any good news ahead.  Mr. Obama's foreign policy has run into a stone wall called reality, and he's realizing that what he learned from college textbooks may not be all that relevant.  The economy shows no signs of improvement.  Huge legislative initiatives, especially health-care "reform," are proving less than popular with an increasingly doubting public.

And this is summer, when attention turns away from politics.

We have said here before that autumn will be hot, politically hot.  If the president's problems persist as we enter the 2010 election cycle, those Republicans who still have breath and a heartbeat may start to see the makings of victory.

July 14, 2009   Permalink

MONDAY,  JULY 13,  2009

MORE TROUBLE FOR OBAMACARE - AT 7:31 P.M. ET:  Rasmussen is reporting today that the public attitude toward President Obama's health-care initiative has turned negative: 

More Americans now oppose the health care reform being crafted by President Obama and congressional democrats than support it, Rasmussen polling company reported Monday.

Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said they were at least somewhat opposed to the unfolding health care reform plan, while 46 percent at least somewhat favored it, according to the survey by Rasmussen Reports. Just two weeks ago, the company said, 50 percent were for the reform plan and 45 percent were opposed. The survey questions did not describe the plan in detail.

And more findings...

Among voters not affiliated with either party, those strongly opposed to the health care reform plan have risen 12 points over the past two weeks, from 39 percent to 51 percent, Rasmussen said.

Just 12 percent of those surveyed said their own health care coverage would get better if the reform plan was passed; 39 percent said they expected that their coverage would get worse and 36 percent said it would stay about the same.

COMMENT:  Health care is the most personal of issues.  Americans plainly don't like what they see, if they see anything at all.  As we commented earlier, the details of the "plan" are so vague.  The Obamans and their congressional allies may jam this through in the end, over public opposition, but it's no way to enact a health plan.  If Americans don't like what follows the plan's introduction, it could have major political consequences. 

July 13, 2009   Permalink

AL, AL, ALREADY? - AT 5:40 P.M. ET:  Al Franken is in the United States Senate.  That should immediately send us looking for property in Australia, but fairness demands that we give the man a chance.  Not much of a chance, but a little something.

Al is in the Judiciary Committee, no doubt because of his judicial temperament, as demonstrated by his legendary rants and obscene outbursts.  Hey, there are all kinds of judges, right?

So Al made his debut today as one of the senators questioning Supreme Court nominee Sonia Satomayor.  And it didn't take long before Al made a fool of himself with this absurdity:

Franken told Sotomayor that she was "the most experienced Supreme Court nominee in 100 years."

Al, Al, Al, we hardly knew ye.  Where did Al get such ridiculous stuff?  Among the Supreme Court nominees in the last hundred years were William Howard Taft, who'd already been president of the United States, and Robert H. Jackson, who'd already been attorney general of the United States.  Throw in swells like Brandeis, Frankfurter, Scalia, and Al looks pretty silly.  Which is normal for Al.

Stay tuned.  The Senate is getting more entertaining.

July 13, 2009   Permalink

HANSON ON OBAMA'S DECLINE - AT 10:39 A.M. ET:  Victor Davis Hanson can always be counted on for a perceptive look at what's happening.  He comes through again, commenting on Obama's decline in the polls, and, I think, in public esteem generally:

I think the Obama presidency is going to encounter far more public skepticism than one would expect in the usual post-honeymoon political adjustments. Why? Because our president often acts and talks as if he were at war with what we might loosely call “human nature.”

There is a growing collective recognition that things simply do not work the way Obama thinks they do. They may in the hothouse at Harvard Law School or in the charade of Chicago politics, or among young, hip bloggers right out of Yale, but not necessarily in the larger American landscape or the real world abroad.

And...

First, Obama’s budgetary agenda defies common sense. If it were true that the United States with impunity could borrow $2 trillion this year — and, in the aggregate, run up another $10 trillion in collective debt over the next eight years — then the rules of finance as we know them would be rendered null and void.

And...

Second, there is likewise a spreading feeling of doubt about our foreign policy. All Americans like to be liked — and like to think they are confident enough to admit mistakes. But Obama is beginning to be predictable, boring even, in his once sincere, but now serial apologies about America’s past and present — to almost everyone from Latin Americans and Europeans to Turks and Muslims in general.

And...

In the perfect world of the university lounge, perhaps such noble things transpire. But most Americans suspect that gratuitous magnanimity can earn contempt as often as appreciation. Like serial borrowing, a tab comes due.

Finally...

Americans are waking up to the fact that their president says, promises, and does things that simply do not make sense, at odds with what they know of human physics — with the predictable nature of the way humans have conducted themselves for centuries...

...Because Obama is a revolutionary who seeks to overturn 50 years of doing business in America both at home and abroad, his shortcomings have the potential not only to diminish his own stature through unmet impossible expectations, but to take all those who signed on to his megalomania down with him.

COMMENT:  The fear, of course, is that a great deal of damage can be done before this kind of revolutionary theorizing is finished.  Some observers make the point that a number of Obama's changes will become impossible to dislodge because large chunks of the public will become dependent on them.

We used to say that America could stand four years of a bad domestic policy, but that four years of a bad foreign policy could be fatal.  That remains true.  If Obama botches Iran or North Korea, the result could be the loss of an American city, or more than one, via nuclear weapons smuggled in or sailed in deep in the hold of a cargo ship.

The stakes are high.  Americans are waking up.  They always do.  Now it's take to put an alarm clock next to the ears of snoozing journalists.

July 13, 2009  Permalink 

WHEN THEY CALL IT "REFORM," RUN FOR THE HILLS - AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  Obamacare is in trouble in Congress, which may be the best news we've had in a long time.  The Politico notes:

Health care reform proponents are growing pessimistic that they can meet President Barack Obama’s August target for passing a bill — saying the next four weeks must fall together perfectly, without a hitch or a hiccup.

The number of weeks that’s happened recently? Zero.

A series of setbacks has made the task of completing floor votes in both chambers virtually insurmountable, given the plodding pace of the Senate. The official line from the White House and the congressional leadership is it’s possible, but privately, there are a dwindling number of aides who would put money on it.

And without a deal by August, the ripple effects could start to endanger the prospect of health care reform this year altogether — chief among them, the closer it gets to the 2010 midterm elections, the harder it will be to get members to make the tough political decisions needed to vote on a bill.

COMMENT:  Have you read any actual details on what's being proposed?  Have you seen extensive - by that I mean one tenth of Michael Jackson - coverage on what this "reform" will actually mean for you, or do to you? 

It is just remarkable that this is one of the most momentous changes proposed in American life in the last three generations, and there is virtually no public discussion.  That may be intentional, of course.  I suspect there are some political activists who don't want the spotlight thrown on this scheme. 

The story refers to "tough political decisions."  What are they?  Why should they be tough if this is such an advance for civilization?  The story is all about process.  If I need surgery, I'm not interested in congressional process or beltway slang.  I'm interested in good medicine.  Anyone agree?  Write your local journalist.

July 13, 2009   Permalink

SONIA SOTOMAYOR'S CONFIRMATION HEARINGS ABOUT TO BEGIN - AT 7:52 A.M. ET: There'll be full coverage, unless CNN decides to cut away for a three-hour special on Michael Jackson's last thoughts about strawberry ice cream.  From Fox:

WASHINGTON -- The leading Judiciary Committee Republican is charging that Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor is "out of the mainstream" of legal thinking and has a very activist judicial profile.

Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama made the assertion just hours before Sotomayor, who would be the third woman to join the court, was to face her initial confirmation hearing.

Sessions also said on CBS's "The Early Show" that he thought the native New York appeals court judge deserves a fair hearing. He quickly added that Republicans on the Judiciary panel won't hesitate to question her closely on her judicial philosophy.

COMMENT:  Republicans should, as part of their responsibility, probe the nominee carefully.  However, this is a done deal.  She'll be confirmed by the Senate.  Then we'll see how she does on the bench.  Supreme Court justices have a way of surprising us, although, unfortunately, the surprises often tilt leftward. 

It's the second, third and possibly forth Obama nominees who worry me.

July 13, 2009   Permalink

OBAMA RETURNS - AT 7:34 A.M. ET:  The president has returned from his trip to Europe, Russia and Africa.  The return was quiet, as there wasn't much to report.  There wasn't even a Neville nicety at the airport during which the chief executive could proclaim peace in our time.

During his trip Mr. Obama said he would have fewer summit conferences in the future, a reflection, no doubt, that he's learned that foreign leaders aren't 17-year-old fans shouting, "Yes we can!"  They take their slogans from American feminism:  "Just say no."

One thing that did come out of this adventure abroad was a vague deadline delivered to the Iranians, who are still busy arresting their dissidents and cracking heads:  If we don't see any progress in negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program by September, there'll be...there'll be...consequences.  There might even be anger and cold stares.  A letter might follow.  Maybe a lawsuit in small-claims court.

But the cagey Iranians have now said that they're about to launch a diplomatic initiative, so forget any deadlines.  All they have to do is affix to a press release a little card saying "have chair, will sit," and the diplomatic establishment will claim to see strobe lights at the end of the tunnel. 

In the midst of a surprisingly cool summer - Al Gore has gone into hiding - Mr. Obama cannot look forward to autumn leaves.  Americans will focus once more on politics in the fall, Republicans will presumably have some game plan in place for the 2010 midterms.  Democratic investigations of BUSH (!!) may be starting, and can easily distract from the president's agenda, or even backfire, as articulate Bushies like Dick Cheney and Douglas Feith start firing back with dreaded facts.

The Obamans are feeling the summer doldrums.  There'd better be some visible change we can believe in by fall.

July 13, 2009   Permalink